小汽车出行多阶段路径动态决策研究

Multi-stage Route Dynamic Decision Making for Car Travel

针对小汽车路径选择的多阶段动态决策问题,采用决策场理论对驾驶员多阶段路径选择过程进行研究。进行了交通状态波动下的多阶段动态决策实验,仿真分析了驾驶员出行前路径选择和出行中路径变更行为的微观心理偏好进化特征,并与实测结果进行了对比分析。偏好进化分析表明,路径变更行为的触发频率随路段交通状态的变化幅度而增加,小范围的波动不易引起路段交通流的显著变化;第二阶段决策的偏好进化更加缓慢,驾驶员普遍出现较长时间的判断过程,路况预警信息的推送需要预留足够的时间。统计检验分析表明,决策场模型良好地描述了多阶段的小汽车路径动态选择行为,可为城市道路交通诱导组织提供支撑。

Aiming at the multi-stage dynamic decision-making problem of car routing,the driver’s multistage routing process is studied by decision field theory.The experiment of multistage dynamic decision making under the fluctuation of traffic state is carried out.The evolution characteristics of the micropsychological preference of driver’s route selection before travel and route change behavior during travel are simulated and analyzed.The preference evolution analysis shows that the trigger frequency of route change behavior increases with the change range of section traffic state,and the small range fluctuation is not easy to cause the significant change of section traffic flow.In the second stage,the evolution of decision-making preference is slower,and drivers generally have a longer judgment process,so the push of road condition warning information needs to reserve enough time.Statistical analysis shows that the decision field model can well describe the dynamic path selection behavior of multi-stage cars,which can provide support for the organization of urban road traffic guidance.