基于QCA的地方政府债务影响因素研究——以湖南省为例

Research on the Influencing Factors of Local Government Debt Based on QCA: A Case Study of Hunan Province

基于湖南省下辖各州市的数据样本,运用定性比较分析方法(QCA)对地方政府债务风险的影响机制进行整合分析。提炼了影响地方政府债务风险的5项影响因素,包括体制层面的财政分权、官员晋升激励,政策层面的土地财政和城镇化以及管理层面的预算软约束。研究发现:这5个影响因素均无法单独构成地方政府债务风险的必要条件与充分条件,只有组合式的模式才能影响湖南省地方政府债务风险,无论是地方政府债务高风险还是地方政府债务低风险,都由政府体制层面、政策层面和管理层面共同作用,产生影响。

Based on the data samples of cities and towns in Hunan province,qualitative comparative analysis(QCA)was utilized to conduct an integrated analysis of the influence mechanism of local government debt risk.Five influencing factors of local government debt risk are extracted,including fiscal decentralization at the institutional level,promotion incentive of officials,land finance and urbanization at the policy level,and soft budget constraint at the management level.The study found that these five influencing factors can’t separately constitute a necessary condition or a sufficient condition for the local government debt risk,only in the way of combined model can they affect the debt risk of local government of Hunan province.Besides,both high local government debt risk and low local government debt risk are affected by the combined action of government system,policy and management level.