基于劳动力就业视角的中国经济增长分析:理论与实践

An Analysis of China’s Economic Growth from the Perspective of Labor Employment: Theory and Practice

文章从经济理论的角度分析了劳动力与经济增长的关系,认为所谓"刘易斯拐点"并不成立,同时理论与真实经济也不支持工作年龄结构与长期经济增长的关系。基于影响经济长期增长的人力资本视角,分析了改革开放以来就业政策对经济增长所产生的影响。可以看到,经济体制改革使中国经济增长愈发具有新古典增长的特点,中国增长水平最终会收敛到依靠人力资本积累所驱动的增长水平。另外,"计划生育"政策加速了中国人力资本的积累,但"二孩"政策短期内未必能增加人力资本积累;在缺乏甄别与激励机制的情况下,由财政支持的公共人力资本冗余会让"延迟退休政策"进一步恶化社保账户;产业结构调整促进了竞争性人力资本积累并增加了劳动力和人力资本的收入。

This paper first analyzes the relationship between labor force and economic growth from the perspective of economic theory,and holds the view that the so-called"Lewis turning point"does not hold true;meanwhile,the theory and real economy do not support the relationship between working age structure and long-term economic growth.This paper analyzes the impact of employment policy on economic growth since the reform and opening up from the perspective of human capital,which affects the long-term economic growth.It can be seen that the reform of economic system makes China’s economic growth with more and more characterization of neoclassical growth;China’s growth will eventually converge into the growth driven by the accumulation of human capital.In addition,"family planning"policy accelerates the accumulation of human capital in China,but the"two child"policy may not increase the accumulation of human capital in the short term;in the absence of screening and incentive mechanism,the public human capital redundancy supported by the public finance will make"delayed retirement policy"further worsen the social security account;industrial restructuring promotes the accumulation of competitive human capital and increases the income of labor force and human capital.