中国操纵汇率了吗?——基于汇率宏观基本面模型的实证分析

Has China Manipulated the Exchange Rate? An Empirical Analysis Based on Macro-fundamental Model of Exchange Rate

基于人民币汇率决定的宏观基本面模型,实证考察经济基本面因子对人民币汇率走势的影响特征,在此基础上分析中美贸易摩擦期间人民币贬值的基本面驱动因素。结果表明:一是人民币汇率变动具有经济基本面支撑,中美贸易顺差和中美经济增速差异是决定人民币汇率走势的两大最重要宏观基本面因子;二是中美贸易摩擦期间人民币持续贬值的根本原因是贸易摩擦加剧和两国经济形势变化所引发的市场效应,是基本面因素驱动下市场自发调整的结果。研究结论为驳斥美国在贸易摩擦期间对中国的汇率操纵指控提供了学理支撑和事实依据。最后就未来美国可能再次发起的"汇率操纵国"指控提出对策。

Based on the macro-fundamental model decided by RMB exchange rate,this paper empirically examines the impact of economic fundamental factors on RMB exchange rate,and analyzes the fundamental driving force of RMB depreciation during the Sino-US trade friction.The results show that fluctuations in RMB exchange rate are supported by economic fundamentals.The trade surplus between China and the United States and the difference in economic growth between the two countries are the two most important macro fundamental factors that determine the trend of RMB exchange rate.The fundamental reason for the continuous depreciation of RMB during the Sino-US trade friction is the market effect caused by the intensification of trade frictions and changes in the economic situation of the two countries.Therefore,the depreciation of RMB is the result of spontaneous adjustment of the market driven by fundamental factors.The results provide a theoretical and factual basis for refuting the allegations of the US in exchange rate manipulation against China during the Sino-US trade friction.Finally,countermeasures are proposed on the allegations of"currency manipulators"that the US may initiate again in the future.