产业扶贫降低了贫困脆弱性吗?——基于CLDS的准实验研究

Does Industrial Poverty Alleviation Reduce Poverty Vulnerability? Quasi-experimental Research Based on CLDS

产业扶贫是实现贫困户稳定脱贫的根本之策。基于中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据,采用期望贫困的脆弱性理论(VEP)估算出贫困脆弱性,然后根据双重差分法(DID)和倾向得分匹配法(PSM)分析产业扶贫对农户家庭贫困脆弱性的影响,并以前瞻性的研究视角对产业扶贫的脱贫减贫效果进行再评估。研究表明:产业扶贫显著降低了贫困脆弱性,且对东部地区的改善作用略高于中西部地区。最后,提出旨在降低贫困脆弱性的政策建议。

Industrial poverty alleviation is the fundamental strategy for poor households to shake off poverty steadily.Based on the data from China Labor-force Dynamic Survey(CLDS),the Vulnerability of Expected Poverty(VEP)is used to estimate the vulnerability of poverty.Then,difference-in-differences(DID)and the propensity score matching method(PSM)are used to analyze the impact of industrial poverty alleviation on the poverty vulnerability of rural households.The impact of industrial poverty alleviation in shaking off poverty is reexamined from a farsighted perspective.Studies show that industrial poverty alleviation significantly reduces poverty vulnerability,and the improvement effect on the eastern region is slightly higher than those in the central and western regions.Finally,policy recommendations on reducing the vulnerability of poverty are proposed.