制度距离与中国对外直接投资的出口贸易效应——对“制度接近性”假说的再检验

Institutional Distance and Export Trade Effect of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment:Re-testing of the “Institutional Proximity” Hypothesis

文章将制度距离、OFDI和出口纳入统一的分析框架,探讨制度距离对OFDI出口效应的影响机制与具体效应,并采用2004—2015年157个国家的跨国数据进行了实证检验。研究发现,第一,中国OFDI的出口带动效应总体上是不确定的,需要考虑制度距离这一关键因素的影响。第二,制度距离具有正向调节效应,能够显著地增强OFDI的出口效应。制度距离越大,对OFDI的出口带动效应越强。第三,中国OFDI偏向于制度质量较低且与中国制度接近的国家,在这些国家OFDI的出口带动效应随着制度质量上升而增大。但是在制度质量更高的国家,OFDI的出口带动效应不显著。这一发现有效地弥合并推进了中国OFDI"特殊性"理论与国际经济学中的OFDI投资"制度接近性"理论。因此,应在识别制度距离的方向与幅度的基础上推行差别化的鼓励政策和扶持措施,以更大地激发OFDI的出口带动效应,推动中国对外投资与出口贸易的高质量持续增长。

The article incorporates institutional distance,outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)and export into a unified analytical framework to explore the influencing mechanism and specific effects of institutional distance on the export effect of OFDI,and the transnational data of 157 countries from 2004 to 2015 are used to make empirical test.The research finds that:Firstly,the export-driven effect of China’s OFDI is generally weak and uncertain,and the influence of institutional distance as the critical factor needs to be considered.Second,institutional distance has a positive regulating effect,which can significantly enhance the export effect of OFDI.The greater the institutional distance,the stronger the export-driven effect on OFDI.Third,China’s OFDI tends to favor countries with low institutional quality and whose institutions are close to China.In these countries,the export-driven effect of OFDI increases with the improvement of institutional quality.However,in countries with higher institutional quality,the export-driven effect of OFDI is not significant.This discovery effectively bridges and advances the"particularity"theory of China’s OFDI and the"institutional proximity"theory of OFDI investment in international economics.Therefore,differentiated incentive policies and supporting measures should be implemented on the basis of identifying the direction and range of institutional distance,so as to further stimulate the export-driven effect of OFDI and promote the high-quality and sustained growth of China’s foreign investment and export trade.