货币政策的利率传导机制及其有效性研究

A Study on the Transmission Mechanism of Interest Rate of Monetary Policy and Its Effectiveness

采用交互式向量自回归模型,研究在分别考虑金融结构、银行业竞争度、汇率弹性三种因素时,扩张型货币政策通过利率渠道对宏观经济变量的影响。研究发现:金融结构偏向银行业、银行业具有一定集中度、汇率制度具备一定弹性,对增强货币政策利率传导渠道的有效性产生了积极作用。在大力发展资本市场的同时,应重视银行业中介的融资功能,鼓励银行业内部适度竞争,增强国有大型商业银行服务国家重大发展战略和建设的能力,保证基建投资托底实体经济。继续坚持人民币汇改的主动性、可控性和渐进性三原则,有管理的汇率浮动仍然是当前较为适合的选择。

Using interactive VAR model,this paper analyzes the impact of expansionary monetary policy on macroeconomic variables through interest rate by taking three factors into consideration.That is,financial structure,banking competition and elasticity of exchange rate.The research shows that financial structure favoring banking system with certain degree of banking concentration,together with a flexible exchange rate system is conducive to enhancing the effectiveness of interest rate channel.While vigorously developing the capital market,we should also pay attention to the financing role of bank intermediaries,encourage appropriate competition among banks,enhance the ability of the large state-owned commercial banks to serve the country’s major development strategy and construction project,and ensure the infrastructure investment to support the real economy.We should adhere to the initiative,controllability and gradualness of RMB exchange rate reform.Manageable exchange rate fluctuation is still a good choice at present.