中国居民住房资产与金融资产的财富效应研究

An Analysis on the Wealth Effect of Housing Assets and Financial Assets of in China

基于带有结构断点的协整检验和持久性-暂时性冲击分解方法考察中国居民住房资产和金融资产财富效应的变化。实证结果显示,收入是居民消费最重要的决定因素,但自2013年以来,收入对消费的影响与前期相比有所下降,住房资产和金融资产对居民消费的影响均明显增强。进一步的分析表明,住房资产的增加并未对非居住消费起到显著的促进作用,在包含居住消费的情况下,住房资产对消费的财富效应存在明显的高估,而金融资产的财富效应则被低估。消费、收入、住房资产和金融资产的长期变化均由持久性冲击决定,证明基于协整关系得到的财富效应分析具有可靠性。长期来看,提高居民的收入水平、促进居民金融资产保值增值是扩大内需的有效途径,与此同时,降低居住成本亦有助于释放居民的消费潜力;短期来看,暂时性冲击对消费波动的影响进一步增大、持续性增强,这意味着在特殊时期,针对居民消费的短期刺激政策是必要的,政府部门应积极采取措施消除短期不利因素,降低各类不确定性冲击的影响。

The co-integration test with structural breakpoint and the permanent and temporary shock decomposition method are used in the article to analyze the change of wealth effect of housing assets and financial assets in China.The empirical results show that income has always been the most important determinant of household consumption,but since 2013,the impact of income on consumption has declined,and the impact of housing assets and financial assets on household consumption has increased significantly.Further analysis shows that the increase of housing assets does not play a significant role in promoting non-residential consumption.When residential consumption is included,the wealth effect of housing assets on consumption is significantly overestimated,while the wealth effect of financial assets is underestimated.The long-term fluctuations of consumption,income,housing assets and financial assets are all determined by permanent shocks,which prove that the wealth effect analysis based on co-integration relationship is reliable.In the long run,improving the income level and promoting the maintenance and appreciation of financial assets of residents are effective ways to expand domestic demand.Meanwhile,reducing the cost of living also helps to release the consumption potential of residents.In the short run,the impact of temporary shock on consumption volatility is further increased and sustained,which means that in some special period,it is necessary for the government to adopt short-term policies to stimulate resident consumption.The government should actively implement policies to eliminate the impact of short-term adverse factors and uncertain shocks.