人口流动对中国经济增长收敛性影响——基于空间溢出角度的研究

Impact of Population Mobility on the Convergence Effect of the Economic Growth in China:A Study Based on the Perspective of Spatial Spillover

采用动态空间面板模型,以Barro和Sala-i-Martin建立的人口迁移模型为基础,分析中国及其中部、东部、西部地区省际间人口流动对经济增长收敛性的影响。研究显示:2004-2015年全国和三大地区的经济增长是收敛的,全国和中部地区的收敛速度较慢,东西部地区的收敛速度较快;人口流动对各地区的经济增长均呈现负效应;中西部地区经济增长有明显的空间相关性,但东部地区的空间溢出效应不显著。说明中国人口分布结构以及技术发展水平存在不均衡的问题;东部地区开始出现劳动力过剩和技术溢出趋于饱和的现象;而中西部地区又因人才严重流失导致经济增长受到阻碍。因此,需制定相关的发展政策,有利于人口流动合理科学的进行,使人口的空间分布与地区的经济发展相适应。

Based on dynamic spatial panel model and the population migration model established by Barro and Sala-i-Martin,this paper analyses the impact of population mobility on the convergence of the economic growth in China and China’s central,eastern and western regions.Study shows that the economic growth of China and the three major regions are all convergent from2004 to 2015.To be more specific,the convergence speed of the whole country and the middle region is slower than those in the eastern and western regions.Population mobility has negative effects on the economic growth of all regions.The economic growth in the central and western region has significant spatial correlations,but the spillover effect in the eastern region is insignificant.This means that China’s population distribution and technological development are unbalanced.Labor surplus can be found in eastern region and its technological spillover tends to be saturated,while the economic growth in the central and western regions is inhibited due to serious brain drain.Therefore,it is necessary to make relevant policies to facilitate the rational and scientific flow of population,so that the spatial distribution of population can be well adapted to the economic development of the regions.