对外贸易对“一带一路”沿线省份绿色全要素生产率水平的影响

The Impact of Foreign Trade on the Level of Green Total Factor Productivity in the Provinces along “the Belt and Road”

利用2006—2017年中国"一带一路"沿线18个省份的面板数据,基于SBM-DDF模型的Malmquist-Luenberger指数法测度出"一带一路"沿线各省份的绿色全要素生产率。在此基础上,利用GLS模型和系统GMM模型实证检验了对外贸易对沿线省份绿色全要素生产率的影响,并进一步分析了影响的区域差异和门槛特征。结果表明,整体来看"一带一路"沿线省份对外贸易抑制了绿色全要素生产率的提高,随着对外贸易水平的提高,抑制作用逐渐减弱。分地区来看,对外贸易对绿色全要素生产率的影响表现出显著的空间异质性。最后结合实证结果,提出了有针对性的政策建议。

Using the panel data of 18 provinces and cities along"the Belt and Road"in China from 2006 to 2017,the paper measures the green total factor productivity of the provinces and the cities based on the Malmquist-Luenberger index method of SBM-DDF model.On the basis,GLS model and system GMM model are used to empirically test the impact of foreign trade on the green total factor productivity of the provinces and cities,and further analysis is made on the regional differences and threshold characteristics of the impact.The results show that foreign trade in the provinces along"the Belt and Road"has inhibited the increase of green total factor productivity in general.As the level of foreign trade increases,the inhibitory effect is gradually weakened.In terms of regions,the impact of foreign trade on green total factor productivity shows significant spatial heterogeneity.Finally,targeted policy recommendations are proposed based on the empirical results.