产业结构与税源质量稳定性分析——以云南省为例

Analysis on the Industrial Structure and the Stability of Tax Source Quality in China: Taking Yunnan Province as an Example

利用云南省"十一五""十二五"和"十三五"开局年产业发展数据,通过三大产业结构变动对税收负担、税收弹性、税收质量影响的计量分析,研究证实,地方产业结构的合理性是影响税源质量和税种稳定性的重要因素;地方产业结构与税源结构存在背离,导致税收增长乏力;第三产业中服务业、建筑业等税源优势影响增强。从中长期看,企业所得税、房产税、资源税等对地方税收的影响度、稳定性需要调整,除深化分税制体制改革外,地方还应积极发展规模经济,巩固现有税源基础,构建差异化地方税源体系和地方税种体系。

Utilizing the industrial development data of the"Eleventh Five-Year Plan","Twelfth Five-Year Plan"and"Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"in Yunnan Province,the paper makes quantitative analysis on the impact of structural changes of three industries on tax burden,tax flexibility,and tax quality.The study confirms that the rationality of local industrial structure is an important factor affecting the quality of tax sources and the stability of tax types.The deviation between the local industrial structure and the tax source structure has led to the weak growth in tax revenue.The tax source advantages of service industry and construction industry in the tertiary industry are enhanced.It is further revealed that in the medium and long term,the impact and stability of corporate income tax,property tax,resource tax,etc.on local taxation need to be adjusted.In addition to deepening the reform of the tax-sharing system,local governments should develop economies of scale actively,consolidate the existing tax source base,and build differentiated local tax source and tax category systems.