基于偏联系数的三支决策模型及应用

Three-way Decision Model Based on Partial Connection Number and Its Application

针对现行三支决策过程对信息动态演化考虑不足的问题,利用偏联系数方法构建了一种新的广义三支决策模型.探索信息演化对决策代价的影响机制,基于一阶偏联系数方法获取“同”、“异”和“反”3种策略的综合代价,进而根据代价最小原则进行决策;融入二阶偏联系数进行二阶信息演化分析,进一步判定系统的微观发展态势.将模型应用于淮河流域信阳段上7个采样点表层沉积物中有机氯农药污染治理的时机选择问题,结果表明:5个采样点的一阶决策结果为“同”,亟待治理;其余两个采样点决策结果为“异”,需进一步监测,与以往研究结果一致.融入二阶演化,其中1个采样点由“异”转为“同”,即需要重点关注.该模型基于决策信息本身构造代价函数,同时兼顾信息演化对决策代价的影响,在一定程度上弥补了以往三支决策模型在前瞻性和客观性方面存在的不足.

Aiming at the insufficient consideration of information dynamic evolution in the three-way decision process,a new generalized three-way decision model was constructed by using the partial connection number method.Explore the influence mechanism of information evolution on decision cost,obtain the comprehensive cost of“identical”,“difference”and“contrary”strategies based on the first-order partial connection number method,and then make decision according to the principle of minimum cost;Integrate the second-order partial connection number to analyze the second-order information evolution,and further determine the micro development trend.The model was applied to the timing of organochlorine pesticide pollution control in surface sediments of seven sampling points in Xinyang section of Huaihe River Basin.The results show that the first-order decision result of 5 samples is“identical”,which needs to be treated urgently;The decision results of the other two samples are“difference”and need further monitoring,which is consistent with the previous research.Integrating the second-order evolution,one of the samples changes from“difference”to“identical”,that is,it needs to be focused.The model constructs the cost function based on the decision information itself,and considers the impact of information evolution on the decision cost.To a certain extent,it makes up for the shortcomings of the previous three-way decision models in foresight and objectivity.