地方政府应对冲击和危机的战略:预期能力和财政脆弱性的作用

Local government strategies in the face of shocks and crises:the role of anticipatory capacities and financial vulnerability

本文以政府财政韧性文献为基础,利用德国、意大利和英国600多个地方政府的调查数据,探讨了危机时期外部冲击、预期能力和相关的感知脆弱性在决定不同组织应对战略中的作用(即“恢复”与“向前”战略)。面对冲击,更高的感知脆弱性与恢复战略尤其相关,而预期能力的存在则与向前战略相关。

This article,building on governmental financial resilience literature,and using data from a survey of over 600 local governments in Germany,Italy and the UK,looks at the role that external shocks,anticipatory capacities and associated perceived vulnerabilities play in determining different organizational response strategies(i.e.‘bouncing back’versus‘bouncing forward’strategies)at times of crisis.In the face of shocks,higher perceived vulnerabilities will especially be associated with bouncing back strategies,whereas the presence of anticipatory capacity will be associated with bouncing forward strategies.