“双重意见气候”下社交机器人舆论干预影响研究——基于ABM仿真模拟沉默螺旋效应

The Influence of Public Opinion Intervention by Social Bots Under the Dual Opinion Climate:Based on ABM Simulation of the Spiral of Silence Effect

在人类用户与大众媒体的“双重意见气候”下,本文致力于讨论社交机器人舆论干预对于沉默螺旋效应的影响,并将媒体监管、因同质偏好引发的连边增减等影响因素纳入模型之中。研究发现,仅需10%的社交机器人,就会造成三分之二以上的人类用户沉默,但在有媒体监管的状态下,随着媒体支持比例的提升,沉默螺旋效应会加速减弱;连边动态变化率的升高,沉默螺旋效应会出现先下降再上升的走势,且低水平的连边动态变化,使优势多数一方表达者迅速上升,而劣势少数的表达人数亦维持不变。

Through ABM Simulation,the author analyzes the influence of public opinion intervention by social bots on the Spiral of Silence effect under the dual opinion climate of human users and public media,and includes in the model influencing factors including media supervision,as well as implicated increase or decrease resulted from homogenous preference.The study shows that merely 10%of social bots can cause the silence of more than two-thirds of human users.However,in supervised media,the Spiral of Silence effect would accelerate in decreasing as the ratio of media support goes up.If the implicated rate of dynamic change rises,the Spiral of Silence effect would decline first and then rise.At the lower level of implicated rate dynamic change,the number of expressers from the advantageous majority increases rapidly,while that from the disadvantageous minority remains the same.