中国稀土贸易安全研究(1992—2018)——基于复杂网络分析方法

Research on China’s Rare Earth Trade Security (1992-2018)——Based on Complex Network Analysis Method

基于复杂网络分析方法,定量刻画了1992—2018年中国稀土贸易网络动态趋势,构建了包括贸易网络结构的中国稀土贸易安全评价指标体系,并结合因子分析方法深入探究了中国稀土贸易安全状况及其影响因素。结果表明,1992—2018年,中国对稀土贸易网络各国的影响逐渐增强,出口节点增长快于进口节点,进口来源相对集聚,网络传输效率不断提高。中国稀土贸易安全状态经历了安全(1992—1998年)到不安全(1999—2011年)再到安全(2012—2018年)的演化过程,产业集中度、价格贸易条件、产业结构、贸易竞争力和贸易网络结构等是诱发和导致中国稀土贸易不安全的主要影响因素。

Studying the temporal and spatial evolution of rare earth trade security and discovering insecurity influencing factors are an important foundation for obtaining the benefits of rare earth trade and promoting the healthy development of China’s rare earth industry.Based on the complex network analysis method,this paper quantitatively describes the dynamic trend of China’s rare earth trade network from 1992 to 2018,constructs the evaluation index system of China’s rare earth trade security including the trade network structure,and deeply explores the situation and influencing factors of China’s rare earth trade security combined with factor analysis method.The results show that from 1992 to 2018,China’s influence on the rare earth trading network countries gradually increased,export nodes grew faster than import nodes,import sources were relatively concentrated,and network transmission efficiency continued to improve.The security status of China’s rare earth trade has experienced an evolutionary process from security(1992-1998)to insecurity(1999-2011)and then to security(2012-2018).Industrial concentration,price terms of trade,industrial structure,trade competitiveness and trade network structure are the main factors that induce and lead to the insecurity of China’s rare earth trade.