考虑风险偏好的概率犹豫模糊多属性决策方法

Probabilistic Hesitant Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Method Considering Risk Preference

针对属性值为概率犹豫模糊数以及决策者面对风险的态度存在差异的问题,提出一种考虑风险偏好的概率犹豫模糊多属性决策方法.首先考虑到决策者的犹豫程度可能会影响到决策效果,给出了以概率犹豫模糊元中元素个数差异表示的犹豫度公式,并且结合元素值之间的差异,定义拓展的海明和欧式距离公式,再以决策者给出的期望值为参考点建立前景决策矩阵,运用离差最大化法计算属性权重.在此基础上,计算各个方案的综合前景值并进行排序.最后通过企业购买ERP系统软件的算例分析验证了所提出方法的有效性和合理性.

Aiming at the problem that the attribute value is a probabilistic hesitant fuzzy number and the decision maker’s attitude to risk is different,a probabilistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making method considering risk preference is proposed.First,considering the decision maker’s hesitation may affect the decision-making effect,a hesitation formula expressed by the difference between the number of elements in the probability hesitant fuzzy element is given.The extended Hamming distance and the extended Euclidean distance are defined based on the hesitation and the difference of element values.Then,a foreground decision matrix is established based on the expected values given by decision makers,and the maximum weight method is used to calculate the attribute weights.Based on this,the comprehensive foreground value of each plan is calculated and ranked.At last,the example analysis of purchasing ERP system software verifies the validity and rationality of the proposed method.