基于灰色理论的航空发动机磨损趋势预测

Abrasion Trend Prediction for Aeroengine Based on Grey Correlation

滑油金属含量是航空发动机关键部件出现磨损及裂纹的表征。通过对其进行预测可提前发现相应部件的故障,保证飞行安全。笔者在分析发射光谱原始数据的基础上,将灰色预测模型应用于航空发动机滑油光谱分析技术中,建立了区间灰色模型,进行了误差计算,并对某型航空发动机滑油中5种元素的浓度监控值进行了预测分析。结果表明,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型方法预测某型航空发动机磨损趋势,达到了较高的准确率,且预测结果保持良好的一致性。

The concentration of metal elements in the aeroengine lubricating oil can reflect the abrasion and fracture of the key aeroengine components.By predicting the metal elements concentration,mechanical faults in the aeroengine can be confirmed in advance,and flight safety can be guaranteed.The initial data in spectra analysis is analyzed,and grey predicting model is applied to lubricating oil spectrometric analysis of aeroengine.An extent grey prediction is established.The prediction difference with the practical data.The concentration monitoring values of five elements in the lubricating oil of an aeroengine are predicted and analyzed.The result shows that this method of grey GM(1,1)model can attain high accuracy of abrasion trend prediction for aeroengine,and the prediction results are consistent.