抗日战争的持久战要多久——国共高层的抗战时长预判

How Long Will the War Be Protracted?——Estimates for the Duration of the Second Sino-Japanese War from the Kuomintang’s and the Chinese Communist Party’s Leaderships

全面抗战期间,国共两党在持久战的认同下,对于抗战持续时间的预判相去甚远。毛泽东认为时间的长短取决于敌我友三方面条件,一般不作具体预测。中共只是在1942年配合欧洲战场局势的可能变化有过一次误判,并及时更正。除敌我力量对比外,中共同样重视国共力量的对比,以期实现"由‘壮气军’地位到实力领导地位"的转变,决定抗战胜利乃至战后中国的走向。而国民党的所谓持久,由于缺少相持阶段的划分,其实是速胜论的变相。随着年复一年的胜利预测无法兑现,加上政治军事毫无起色,陷入极大被动。国共摩擦影响了中日之间的强弱转换,却使得国共的力量对比开始发生质变。

During the Second Sino-Japanese War,despite sharing the same anticipation of protracted war,the Kuomintang(KMT)and the Chinese Communist Party(CCP)had absolutely different estimates for the duration of the war.Believing that the duration depended on the condition of both sides and the collaborator,Mao Zedong rarely made specific estimates.Only in 1942,the CCP delivered a misjudgment according to the situation of Europe,but corrected it in time.Except for the balance of power between both sides of the war,the CCP also paid attention to the one between the KMT and itself.The CCP was making consistent efforts to change its role from a"morale booster"to a leader,which was influential in the progress of the war and even in the development of China after the war.In contrast,as the KMT’s interpretation of protracted war did not include concrete division of different phases,the strategic analysis only ended up as a variant of the KMT’s quick victory anticipation.From year to year,the KMT’s optimistic prediction failed to come true.Meanwhile,the political and military condition of the Nationalist Government did not improve as expected.As a result,the KMT lost advantage in the competition with the CCP gradually.