新发展格局下碳排放达峰的政策内涵与实现路径

Policies on Peaking Carbon Emissions and Their Implementation in the New Development Pattern

中国提出2030年前碳达峰和2060年前碳中和的国家承诺,对于落实《巴黎协定》、引领全球绿色复苏、构建新发展格局具有重要意义。文本在解读新发展格局与2030年前碳排放达峰逻辑关系的基础上,分析碳达峰的政策内涵与实现路径,探讨碳达峰目标导向下可再生能源的发展前景。文本指出,2030年前碳达峰与构建新发展格局逻辑一致。碳达峰决定了新发展格局的构建方向、进程和结果,其实现受新发展格局多角度系统性规划的支持,与2035年远景目标衔接协同,同步推进。中国碳达峰是自我加压的主动行为,深层次问题是能源问题,要求源、网、荷同步发力,高比例发展非化石能源,以能源脱碳推动经济社会绿色低碳转型。可再生能源在供电、调峰、储能、电网建设等方面存在技术障碍,与体制机制问题共同导致消纳困难。但基于资源禀赋等客观条件和能源安全、能源革命、国际能源市场竞争提供的发展机遇,2030年前碳达峰目标导向下可再生能源具有较大发展潜力。

China’s commitment to peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 is of great significance to implementing the Paris Agreement,leading global green recovery and constructing a New Development Landscape.Based on the interpretation of the logical relationship between the Ned Development Landscape and carbon emissions peak before 2030,this paper analyzes the policies and path of peaking carbon emissions,and sets out the prospect for the development of renewable energy in the context of China’s goal to peak its carbon emissions.The paper points out that peaking carbon emissions before 2030 is logically aligned with the construction of the New Development Landscape.The carbon emissions peak determines the direction,process and outcomes for the construction of the New Development Landscape,while its attainment is profoundly influenced by the multi-angle systematic planning of the New Development Landscape,coordinating with the long-term goals of 2035.Peaking carbon emissions is a proactive move taken by China to pressure itself into action.The underlying issue is its energy problem,to address which requires efforts from generation,networks and loads at the same time in order to support the development of a high proportion of non-fossil energy,and promote the green and low-carbon transition of social-economy through decarbonizing the energy sector.However,renewable energy still faces technical obstacles in power supply,peak regulation,energy storage and grid development.Technical hurdles,together with institutional problems,could lead to difficulties in accommodating renewable energy.However,based on objective conditions such as resource endowment,it will still have an important role to play in energy security,energy revolution and international energy market competition.In conclusion,there is great potential for the development of renewable energy under the guidance of peaking carbon emissions before 2030.