我国社会保障体系财政负担预测研究

A Research on Fiscal Burden Prediction of China’s Social Security System

当前,我国社会保障体系的财政可持续性已经成为一个不可回避的问题,然而对全口径的我国社会保障体系财政负担预测的研究还不完善。文本通过界定我国全口径的社会保障体系的政府财政责任,针对养老、医疗和社会救助三个子体系分别建立财政负担预测模型,测算了2018-2050年全体系的财政负担变化趋势。研究得出以下结论:一是我国社会保障体系的总体财政负担巨大,累积财政负担现值占2018年GDP的214.1%;二是社会保障体系的财政负担70%以上来源于养老保险;三是医疗保险体系的财政补贴额增长迅速;四是人口老龄化是财政负担迅速加重的主要原因之一。据此,文本提出了以下政策建议:第一,积极推进渐进式延迟退休政策的出台;第二,积极发展第三支柱个人养老金;第三,实现医疗体系的合理控费;第四,全面放开生育政策,鼓励生育。

At present,the fiscal sustainability of China’s social security system has become an unavoidable problem. However,the research on the fiscal burden prediction of China’s whole social security system is still not perfect. By defining the government’s fiscal responsibility for the whole social security system in China,establishing fiscal burden prediction models for the three sub-systems of pension,medical care and social assistance,this paper calculates the trend of the fiscal burden of the whole social security system from 2018 to 2050. The conclusions are as follows: First,the overall fiscal burden of China’s social security system is huge,and the present value of accumulated fiscal burden in 2018 accounts for 214.1% of GDP. Second,more than 70% of the fiscal burden of the social security system comes from pension insurance. Third,the fiscal subsidy of the medical insurance system has grown rapidly. Fourth,the population aging is one of the main reasons causing the rapid increase of fiscal burden. The policy recommendations are as follows :first,the government should actively introduce the progressive delayed retirement policy. Second,it should actively develop the third pillar in pension system. Third,it should achieve a reasonable control of the medical system. Fourth,the government should loosen the birth policy and encourage fertility.