考虑航线特征的机票价格预测方法研究

Forecasting Airfare Based on Route Characteristics

【目的】对日均航班数较少且历史数据不完整甚至缺失的航线进行票价预测,辅助旅客进行购票时间决策。【方法】借助多条航线的历史数据解决这类航线的票价预测问题。基于前人研究以及数据的可获得性,提取一批可能与机票价格波动相关的特征变量;对这些变量进行分类并利用控制变量的思想,逐步找出最合适的机票价格预测模型。【结果】模型中包含与年度相关的变量(航程变量、航线的社会经济特征)时,其预测误差小于不包含的情况。【局限】没有考虑中转航班等因素;没有研究居民可支配收入等特征变量;没有引入更多的预测算法和模型评价指标。【结论】年度相关特征、两地间航程以及航线的社会经济特征均与机票价格波动相关。

[Objective]This paper predicts airfare on routes with fewer daily average flights and incomplete or even no historical data,aiming to help passengers choose better ticketing time.[Methods]We used historical data of multiple routes to predict airfares of the targets.Based on previous research and data,we extracted characteristic variables related to airfare fluctuations.We also classified these variables to establish the airfare forecasting model.[Results]When the model contains variables like the distance and the socio-economic characteristics of the route,the prediction error was significantly reduced.[Limitations]We did not include transit flights and local residents’income data in our study.More research is needed to evaluate the performance of predicting algorithms.[Conclusions]The characteristics related to the year,the distance between the two places and the socio-economic factors of the routes are the main reasons for airfare fluctuations.