基于系统动力学的突发事件网络舆情传播研究:以“江苏响水爆炸事故”为例

Tracking Online Public Opinion Based on System Dynamics:Case Study of“Xiangshui Explosion Accident”

【目的】探究突发事件网络舆情的传播规律,为政府部门引导和调控网络舆情提供理论依据。【方法】以"江苏响水爆炸事故"为例,引入突发事件类型的特有变量,基于系统动力学理论构建突发事件网络舆情传播的系统动力学模型,采用Vensim软件对所构建模型进行仿真与分析;同时,将政府相关变量作为控制变量,深入探讨政府行为对网络舆情传播态势的影响。【结果】在仿真实验结果中,网民微博发帖量和网媒新闻发布量两个主要变量的MAPE值分别为18%和27%,表明所构建仿真模型具有可行性和有效性,能够可靠地拟合网络舆情的传播趋势。通过参数优化调整,分别设置"政府危机处理力度"和"官方新闻透明度"变量上下浮动20%、"政府响应时间"推迟一天,其结果表明政府行为及处理方式对舆情传播影响效果最为显著。【局限】部分数据来自调查问卷和专家打分,其结果可能存在偏差。【结论】突发事件的网络舆情传播规律一般是先迅速上升到峰值,然后缓慢下降;政府的响应时间、政府危机处理力度及官方新闻透明度对舆情热度的影响分别为正相关、负相关及负相关。

[Objective]This paper explores the dissemination laws of online public opinion during emergencies(OPOE),aiming to help governments guide and regulate such information.[Methods]First,we used"Xiangshui Explosion Accident in Jiangsu Province"as an example and introduced unique variables for this type of events.Then,we constructed a system dynamics model for OPOE.Third,we simulated and analyzed the proposed model with Vensim software.Finally,we adopted the government-related variables as control variables to discuss the impact of government behavior on online public opinion.[Results]For the simulation experiment,the MAPE values of the online posts and news were 18%and 27%.Thus,the simulation model is feasible and could effectively describe the developing trends of online public opinions.More importantly,the government reactions also posed significant effects to the dissemination of public opinions.[Limitations]Some of our data were from questionnaires and expert scoring,which might be biased.[Conclusions]The OPOE generally rises rapidly to the peak and then slowly declines.The government response time,level of reactions and transparency of official news posed positive,negative and negative effects to evolving of public opinions.