基于AHP的施工进度风险评价模型研究及应用

Research and Application of Construction Progress Risk Assessment Model Based on AHP

为解决传统施工进度风险评价方法的不足,在工程项目资料及专家意见的基础上,确定施工进度风险影响因素,提出基于层次分析法(AHP)的施工进度风险评价模型。采用MATLAB软件进行各级指标一致性的检验,得到各指标权重,基于指标权重对施工进度风险进行评价,采用该模型进行工程实例分析,以验证模型的可靠性。研究表明,该模型可全面评价工程施工进度风险,客观反映各风险因素对施工进度影响权重。对于鲁家屯车辆段工程,一级评价指标中,组织管理风险和社会政策风险对鲁家屯车辆段工程施工进度风险影响较大,权重系数分别为32.37%和28.75%;二级评价指标中,环境治理和人员素质对鲁家屯车辆段工程施工进度风险影响较大,权重系数分别为20.56%和15.34%。

In order to solve the shortcomings of traditional risk assessment methods of construction progress,and on the basis of project documentation and expert opinions,the risk factors affecting the construction progress are determined,and a risk assessment model of construction progress based on AHP is proposed.MATLAB software was used to test the consistency of indicators at all levels,and the weights of each indicator were obtained.The construction progress risks are evaluated based on the index weights.Based on the model,an engineering case analysis is carried out to verify its reliability of the model.The research shows that the model can comprehensively evaluate the construction progress risks,and can objectively reflect the impact weight of each risk factor on the construction progress.Among the primary evaluation indicators,the organization management risk and social policy risk have greater impact on the construction progress of the Lujiatun depot project,and the weight coefficients are 32.37%and 28.75%respectively;Among the secondary evaluation indicators,environmental governance risk and personnel quality risk have greater impact on the construction progress of the Lujiatun depot project,and the weight coefficients are 20.56%and 15.34%.