多元相关性退化系统可靠性模型

Reliability model of system with multiple related degradation processes

针对具有多个相关性能退化过程的复杂系统可靠性评估问题,采用非线性Wiener过程描述系统性能退化过程,并基于多元Copula函数分析系统性能退化过程间的相关关系。在此基础上,建立了系统可靠性模型,并提出了相应的参数估计方法。以三部件系统为例,验证了参数估计方法、相关性退化模型以及可靠性模型的有效性和精确性,分析了相关性参数对系统可靠性的影响,说明了在评估系统可靠性时考虑退化过程相关的必要性。

In order to evaluate the reliability of complex systems with multiple related performance degradation processes,a non-linear Wiener process was used to describe the performance degradation processes,and the relevance between the performance degradation processes was analyzed based on the multivariate Copula function.On this basis,the system reliability model was established and the corresponding parameter estimation method was proposed.Taking a three-component system as an example,the validity and accuracy of the parameter estimation method,the degradation relevance model and the reliability model were verified.The influence of relevance parameters on system reliability was analyzed,and the necessity of considering the relevance of degradation processes in evaluating system reliability was illustrated.