东道国政治风险、投资动机与企业OFDI速度

Host Country Risk,Motivation of Investment and Foreign Direct Investment Speed of Chinese Enterprises

考察了在投资动机的调节作用下,东道国政治风险对中国企业OFDI速度的影响效果。发现:通过对2008-2017年十年间我国A股上市公司对外直接投资的数据分析,总体上看,技术寻求型和市场寻求型企业的OFDI趋于快速流向政治风险较高的国家;而寻求自然资源时,投资速度则表现出明显的"风险规避"偏好。在寻求自然资源时,国有企业较非国有企业对待东道国政治风险的敏感度更低,但寻求技术和市场时,非国有企业表现出更强烈的风险偏好。OFDI速度的差异同样会影响企业对待风险的敏感程度。本文研究表明,中国OFDI并非完全呈现与主流国际投资理论相反的"风险偏好"特征,这为中国企业后续的OFDI战略调整提供了事实依据。

This paper examines the effect of host country’s political risk on the speed of OFDI of Chinese enterprises under the regulation of investment motivation.On the basis of theoretical analysis and data analysis of OFDI of A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2017,it is found that:(1)Generally speaking,technology-seeking and market-seeking enterprises tend to flow rapidly to countries with higher political risks;while in the search for natural resources,the investment speed is higher.It shows obvious risk aversion preference;(2)In the search for natural resources,stateowned enterprises are less sensitive to the political risk of the host country than non-state-owned enterprises,but in the search for technology and market,non-state-owned enterprises show stronger risk preference;(3)Quantile regression results show that the difference of OFDI speed will also affect the sensitivity of enterprises to risk.This study proves that China’s OFDI does not show the"risk preference"feature completely contrary to the mainstream international investment theory,which provides a factual basis for the later adjustment of Chinese enterprises’OFDI strategy.