非金融企业高杠杆率会加剧“脱实向虚”吗?——来自2007—2016年中国上市公司的证据

Will the High Leverage of Non-financial Corporate Exacerbate the Phenomenon of “Off Real To Fictitiousness”?——Evidence from Data of 2007-2016 Chinese A-share Listed Companies

通过对3000多家中国上市公司2007—2016年数据的分析,本文创新性地提出企业杠杆率对投资率存在异质性影响,导致投资转移效应出现;替代效应存在,但投资转移效应是"脱实向虚"的关键成因。本文认为,兼顾"稳增长、防风险和去杠杆"多政策目标、根本性扭转"脱实向虚"现象的关键在于,结构性去杠杆下推动科技进步并提升增长质量,前者提升实业投资回报率,发挥替代效应,带动企业投资实体经济,后者增强杠杆稳定性并降低投资转移效应,避免"脱实向虚"加剧。

Based on the panel data of more than 3,000 A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2016,this paper proposes that the leverage ratio of enterprises has a heterogeneous impact on the investment rate,resulting in the appearance of investment-transfer effect.The substitution effect exists,but the investment transfer effect is the key to the"Off Real To Fictitiousness".This paper believes that the key to balancing the multiple policy objectives of"stable growth,risk prevention and deleveraging policy"and fundamentally reversing the phenomenon of"Off Real To Fictitiousness"is to promote technological progress and enhance the quality of growth under the policy of structural deleveraging.The former could enhance the return on industrial investment,which drives enterprises to invest in the real economy under the substitution effect.The latter enhances the stability of the leverage,and reduces the investment-transfer effect to avoid further exacerbation of"Off Real To Fictitiousness".