基于VAR模型的西安市商品房空置影响因素探析

Analysis on the influencing factors of the vacancy commercial housing in Xi’an based on VAR model

本文选取新一线城市——西安市作为典型对象,基于西安市商品房发展现状的总体描述,分别通过Pearson相关显著性检验、单位根检验、格兰杰因果关系检验以及脉冲响应函数的VAR模型回归,研究影响城市商品房空置率的关键因素。结果表明:2010~2018年西安市房地产开发投资额、销售面积实现稳定性大幅增长;商品房竣工面积总体呈现较大范围的周期性波动式增长态势;商品房空置率均值为20.73%。房地产开发投资额、商品房销售额对商品房空置率存在显著单向的因果影响,商品房价格对商品房空置率影响具有滞后性,前者对后者的因果关系较弱。房地产开发投资额、商品房销售额、商品房价格对商品房空置率存在一定的负向冲击;但商品房价格短期冲击效果无法显现,三者冲击影响约有4期。因此,立足政府、开发商和金融机构三方视角提出多方面的政策,对于保障商品房空置率在合理区间运行,促进房地产市场的高质量发展具有一定的政策参考和对策借鉴。

In this paper,Xi’an,a new first-tier city,is selected as a typical object.Based on the overall description of the development status of Xi’an commercial housing,the key factors affecting the vacancy rate of urban commercial housing are studied through Pearson correlation significance test,unit root test,Granger causality test and VAR model regression of impulse response function.The results show that from 2010 to 2018,the investment in real estate development and the sales area of Xi’an have increased substantially.The completed area of commercial housing generally presents a large range of cyclical fluctuation type growth trend;The average vacancy rate of commercial housing was 20.73 percent.The investment in real estate development and the sales of commercial housing have a significant one-way causal effect on the vacancy rate of commercial housing,and the price of commercial housing has a lag effect on the vacancy rate of commercial housing,the former has a weak causal relationship with the latter.The investment of real estate development,the sales of commercial housing and the price of commercial housing have a negative impact on the vacancy rate of commercial housing.However,the short-term impact of commodity housing price cannot be shown,and the impact of the three factors has about 4 phases.Therefore,based on the perspective of the government,developers and financial institutions,this paper proposes various policy enlightenment,which has certain policy reference and countermeasures for guaranteeing the vacancy rate of commercial housing to run within a reasonable range and promoting the high-quality development of the real estate market.