粤港澳大湾区背景下广东省9市人水和谐关系时空特性研究

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the human-water harmony in nine cities of Guangdong Province under the background of the Great Bay Area

以粤港澳大湾区规划涉及的广东省9个市为研究区域,利用人水和谐理论方法,对研究区2014-2018年共5 a的人水和谐关系进行了量化,并分析了人水和谐关系的时空分布特征。研究中综合考虑影响人水和谐关系的健康度、发展度和协调度3个要素,建立指标评价体系,采用主、客观权重和合作博弈论确定综合权重,分别计算3个要素,进而通过要素集成确定人水和谐度。结果表明:大湾区背景下的广东省9市,近5年的人水和谐关系处于"基本和谐"到"较和谐"等级,且有逐渐向"和谐"转变的态势;从空间分布看,大湾区周边的江门、肇庆和惠州3个市的人水和谐度较其他城市稍高,这在一定程度上可缓解和分担经济高度集中发展带给水资源系统的压力,从而为大湾区未来的综合发展提供优质的水资源条件。

Taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Great Bay Area as the study object,the harmonious relationship between human and water in nine cities of Guangdong from 2014 to 2018 was quantified based on human-water harmony theory,and its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics was analyzed.The three factors of health,development and coordination degree were taken into consideration in establishing an index evaluation system.The comprehensive weights were determined using subjective and objective weights and cooperative game theory,with which the values of these three factors were calculated and the human-water harmony degree was assessed.The results show that the human-water harmony of the nine cities ranked from "almost harmonious"to "quasi harmonious",developing to "harmonious"level.The relationship between human and water in the three cities of Jiangmen,Zhaoqing and Huizhou around the Greater Bay Area was slightly higher than that in the others,which alleviated the pressure of highly concentrated development on the water resources system and provided high-quality water resources for the future development of the Great Bay Area.