数字普惠金融与碳排放:理论和实证分析

Digital Financial Inclusion and Carbon Emissions:Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

碳减排对我国缓解气候问题和经济高质量可持续发展具有重大意义,而数字普惠金融和能源结构调整能为我国实现“双碳”目标提供支撑。本文选取我国30个省际2011-2020年的面板数据,通过构建有调节的中介效应模型研究数字普惠金融对碳排放的影响,并进一步进行了维度和地区的异质性分析。研究结果表明:数字普惠金融发展能够显著抑制我国整体的碳排放,且能源结构能在其中发挥中介作用抑制碳排放,同时研发投入在数字普惠金融对能源结构调整的影响中能够起到正向调节作用,在能源结构促进碳排放的过程中起到负向调节作用。异质性分析表明,数字普惠金融的三个子维度中覆盖深度对于碳排放强度的抑制作用最大,且数字普惠金融的碳减排效应在中部和东部地区尤为显著。

Carbon emission reduction is of great significance to China's mitigation of climate problems and highquality sustainable economic development,and digital inclusive finance and energy structure adjustment can provide support for China to achieve the"double carbon"goal.This paper selects the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020,studies the impact of digital inclusive finance on carbon emissions by constructing a moderated mediating effect model,and further analyzes the heterogeneity of dimensions and regions.The results show that the development of digital inclusive finance can significantly inhibit the overall carbon emissions in China,and the energy structure can play an intermediary role in inhibiting carbon emissions.At the same time,R&D investment can play a positive regulatory role in the impact of digital inclusive finance on energy structure adjustment,and play a negative regulatory role in the process of energy structure promoting carbon emissions.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the coverage depth of the three sub-dimensions of digital inclusive finance has the greatest inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity,and the carbon emission reduction effect of digital inclusive finance is particularly significant in the central and eastern regions.