双碳背景下的数字经济对碳减排的作用机理与实证研究——基于省域面板数据的经验分析

The Mechanism and Empirical Study of the Effect of Digital Economy on Carbon Emission Reduction in the Context of Dual Carbon:Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

随着数字经济的盛行,社会经济发展方式发生巨大变革,数字经济助力经济高质量发展和推动实现双碳目标成为未来经济发展的必然趋势。为探究数字经济对实现双碳目标的作用机理及影响程度,本文通过运用静态面板模型和空间面板数据模型等计量方法探究我国30省市(除西藏、港澳台地区)数字经济发展情况及其促进碳减排的实现路径、空间差异等,以期为推动实现双碳目标提供参考思路。研究发现我国碳排放强度呈现动态演进、区域差异的特征,数字经济对碳排放强度影响呈现先抑制后促进的U型曲线,数字经济通过能源结构、产业结构、创新能力抑制碳排放强度增长等结论,并提出应促进全国各区域降碳工作协调发展,发挥数字经济优势,助力实现双碳目标等参考建议。

With the prevalence of the digital economy,the mode of social and economic development has undergone tremendous changes.The digital economy will help the high-quality development of the economy and promote the realization of the dual-carbon goal as the inevitable trend of future economic development.In order to explore the mechanism and influence of the digital economy on the realization of the dual-carbon goal,this paper explores the development of the digital economy in 30 provinces and cities in China(except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)and the realization path and spatial difference of promoting carbon emission reduction by using the static panel model and spatial panel data model,with a view to providing reference ideas for promoting the realization of the dual-carbon goal.The study found that China's carbon emission intensity presents the characteristics of dynamic evolution and regional differences,the impact of digital economy on carbon emission intensity presents a U-shaped curve of first inhibition and then promotion,and the digital economy inhibits the growth of carbon emission intensity through energy structure,industrial structure and innovation capacity,and puts forward reference suggestions such as promoting the coordinated development of carbon reduction in all regions of the country,giving full play to the advantages of digital economy,and helping to achieve the dual carbon goal.