居民杠杆率视角下我国消费升级问题研究

Research on China's Consumption Upgrading Issues From the Perspective of Household Leverage Ratio

本文通过构建AIDS模型测度我国消费升级水平,使用各省域数据构建面板回归模型研究分析我国居民杠杆对消费升级的影响。结果表明:第一,2009至2019年间我国居民杠杆率呈现较快上升特征,我国居民杠杆达到较高水平,需要关注警惕过快过度上涨所导致的经济金融风险。消费升级指数呈现稳步上升趋势,总体上低于同期居民杠杆上升速度。第二,2009-2019年我国发生了明显的第一类消费升级,即食品支出占比不断降低。2009-2013年,我国出现了明显的第二类消费升级,生活用品及服务、交通通信、教育文化娱乐等符号性、服务型特征的消费支出增速持续高于消费总支出增速。2013年后,这些消费的支出弹性有一定下降,升级势头放缓。而居住支出弹性持续上升,表明居住支出对其他类型消费形成了明显的挤出效应。第三,考察期内,居民杠杆上升对消费升级产生促进效应,但杠杆率越高,消费增速越低,对消费升级的边际效应逐步降低。此外,房价上涨对消费升级具有一定抑制作用,而消费支出对消费升级有明显的促进作用,老年抚养比也与消费升级正相关。

By constructing an AIDS model to measure the level of consumption upgrading in china,and using the data of various provinces to construct a panel regression model to study and analyze the influence of housebold leverage on consumption upgrading.The results show that:First,between 2009 and 2019,the housebold leverage ratio showed rapid increase,indicating that housebold leverage ratio has reached a high level,and it is necessary to pay attention to the economic and financial risks caused by excessive rapid and excessive increases.The consumption upgrade index has shown a steady upward trend,which is generally lower than the rate of increase in household leverage over the same period.Second,from 2009 to 2019,china has seen an obvious first-type consumption upgrade,that is,the proportion of food expenditures has continued to decrease.From 2009 to 2013,my country has seen a significant second-category consumption upgrade.The growth rate of consumption expenditure with symbolic and service-oriented features such as daily necessities and services,transportation and communication,education,culture and entertainment has continued to be higher than the growth rate of total consumption expenditure.After 2013,the expenditure elasticity of these consumption has declined,and the momentum of upgrading has slowed.The elasticity of housing expenditure continues to rise,indicating that housing expenditure has formed a clear crowding-out effect on other types of consumption.Third,during the inspection period,the increase of housebold leverage ratio has a boosting effect on consumption upgrading,but the marginal effect will gradually decrease,the higher the leverage ratio,the lower the consumption growth rate.In addition,rising housing prices have a certain inhibitory effect on consumption upgrades,while consumption expenditures have a clear promotion effect on consumption upgrades,and the elderly dependency ratio is also positively correlated with consumption upgrades.