中国对RCEP框架内国家直接投资效率及潜力分析——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究

Analysis on the Efficiency Potential of Chana’s Direct Investment in RCEP Member Countries——Empirical study based on stochastic frontier gravity model

本文运用2010-2019年的面板数据,构建中国对RCEP其他成员国家直接投资的随机前沿引力模型以及非效率模型,测算中国对RCEP成员国投资效率及潜力,并分析影响直接投资的主要因素。研究发现,中国对RCEP成员国投资效率差异显著,不平衡较强;中国对老挝、越南、缅甸、柬埔寨、泰国等东盟国家投资效率较高,对日本、新西兰、印尼、韩国、菲律宾等国家投资效率偏低,投资潜力较大;东道国GDP、两国之间距离、自然资源禀赋是影响直接投资的主要因素,东道国的法律规则完善性、政府效率、话语权与问责制是造成投资效率损失的主要因素。

Based on the panel data from 2010 to 2019,this paper constructs the stochastic frontier gravity model and inefficiency model of China’s direct investment in other RCEP member countries,calculate the efficiency and potential of China’s investment in RCEP member countries,and analyzes the main factors affecting China’s direct investment.The results show that China’s investment efficiency in RCEP member countries is significantly different and unbalanced.China’s investment efficiency in Laos,Vietnam,Myanmar,Cambodia,Thailand and other ASEAN countries is relatively high,while its investment efficiency in Japan,New Zealand,Indonesia,The Republic of Korea,the Philippines and other countries is relatively low and its investment potential is relatively high.GDP of host country,distance between two countries and natural resource endowment are the main factors affecting direct investment,while the perfection of laws and rules,government efficiency,discourse power and accountability system of host country are the main factors causing the loss of investment efficiency.