我国债务规模与经济增长时变性分析

An analysis of the Time Varying of Debt Scale and Economic Growth in China

本文通过对我国近10年来的政府、非金融企业和住户部门的债务水平走势分析与比较发现,我国宏观杠杆率总体处于较高水平;从结构看,政府部门增长相对平稳,企业部门绝对值偏高,住户部门增速持续加快。进一步深入分析我国部门债务扩张的风险隐患,并对我国债务拉动经济增长强度开展时变性实证分析,结果显示,住户部门和政府部门债务杠杆对经济增长的拉动强度仍有上升空间,而企业部门债务杠杆的拉动强度则趋于下降。鉴于此,本文认为面对"稳增长"和"防风险"的双重任务,应始终坚持结构性去杠杆路径,具体措施包括营造良好的宏观政策环境,稳定房价和地价预期,强化地方政府和国有企业预算硬约束,充分发挥逆周期政策的调节作用等。

This paper analyzes and compares the debt level trends of the government, non-financial enterprises and household sectors in my country in the past 10 years and finds that my country’s macro leverage ratio is generally at a relatively high level. In terms of sectors, the growth of the government sector is relatively stable, the absolute value of the corporate sector is relatively high, and the growth of the household sector continues to accelerate. This paper further analyzes the potential risks of China’s sector debt expansion,and carries out an empirical analysis on the time-varying intensity of China’s debt driven economic growth,the result shows change of the pulling strength of debt leverage on economic growth, that of household and government debt leverage still has room to increase,while that of enterprise debt leverage continues to decline. In view of this, this paper believes that in the face of the dual tasks of "stable growth" and "risk prevention", we should always adhere to the structural deleveraging path. Specific measures should be taken to create a good macro policy environment for deleveraging, stabilize housing prices and land price expectations, strengthen the budget constraints of local governments and state-owned enterprises and give full play to them The counter cyclical regulation function of the central government.