内生经济增长、技术外溢及其对碳中和影响机制研究

Endogenous Economic Growth, Technology Spillover and Their Impact on Carbon Neutralization

从内生经济增长对碳中和的影响角度出发,分析经济增长目标机制与碳排放关系,以及碳中和的演进路径,进而分析技术外溢对碳中和的影响,并探讨技术进步和技术外溢对内生经济增长和碳减排的影响机制。研究发现:经济增长过程中碳排放超过自然生态系统的承载能力时,即会导致生态危机的出现;在碳中和的演进过程中碳排放强度、碳总量和人均碳排放量呈先升后降的变化,且人均碳排放量的下降趋势滞后于碳排放强度和碳总量的下降趋势;碳排放量与企业的技术水平呈负相关关系,企业技术水平的提高会间接实现经济规模的扩大,进而减少碳排放;新技术的采用和外溢与其产品的相对供给呈负相关关系,与环境质量呈正相关关系。研究结果表明:经济发展导致碳排放总量增加,发展绿色低碳技术和技术外溢是实现碳中和的有效路径。

From the perspective of the impact of endogenous economic growth on carbon neutralization,this paper analyzes the relationship between the target mechanism of economic growth and carbon emissions,as well as the evolution path of carbon neutralization,studies the impact of Technology Spillover on carbon neutralization,and discusses the impact mechanism of technology progress and technology spillover on endogenous economic growth and carbon emission reduction.The results show that:when carbon emission exceeds the carrying capacity of natural ecosystem in the process of economic growth,it will lead to ecological crisis;In the evolution process of carbon neutralization,carbon emission intensity,total carbon and per capita carbon emission increase first and then decrease,and the decreasing rate of per capita carbon emission lags behind the decreasing rate of carbon emission intensity and total carbon;There is a negative correlation between carbon emission and technology of enterprises.The improvement of technology of enterprises will indirectly help the growth of economic size and further reduce carbon emission;The adoption and spillover of new technology are negatively correlated with the relative supply of its products,and positively correlated with the environmental quality.The results show that:economic growth leads to the increase of total carbon emissions,the development of green low-carbon technology and technology spillover is an effective way to achieve carbon neutral.