中美贸易战与中国在全球价值链上的战略选择

全球价值链背景下,贸易战是参与全球价值链的企业间竞争发展到一定阶段后在国家层面的延续。本文通过古诺竞争模型证明,贸易战是产业竞争、全球价值链竞争在国家层面的反应和延伸,不断缩小的收入差距对两国贸易形成支撑,客观存在的技术差距导致价值链分工的基本格局没有改变。本文构建了形成价值链上的关键行动者、培育国内价值链、价值链全球布局、国际外包政策在内的四个维度,从而提出中国在全球价值链上的战略选择包括尽快制定基于全球产业链的产业发展计划、基于全球产业链的演化趋势培育区域性“链主”、构建内外统一的一体化发展格局、发挥本土市场规模优势集聚高端要素。

In the context of global value chain,trade war is the extension at the national level after the competition among enterprises participating in global value chains.In this paper,the Cournot competition model proves that trade war is the reaction and extension of industrial competition and global value chain competition at the national level,and constantly shrinking the income gap between the two countries.The objectively existing technology gap didn’t change the competition landscape.Based on four dimensions including the formation of key actors in the value chain,the cultivation of domestic value chain,the global distribution of value chain and the international outsourcing policy,we proposed the China's strategic choices on the global value chain,which include formulating the industrial development plan as soon as possible,developing regional"chain master",building a unified internal and external integrated development pattern,and using the advantages of local market size to gather high-end elements.