贸易战、产业政策与股市反应——对稀土的研究

Trade War,Industry Policy and Stock Market Responses——Evidence from Rare Earth Listed Companies

目前还缺乏稀土股票对贸易战反应的研究。采用事件研究法分析了中国稀土股票股价对贸易战前后及贸易战三组事件的反应。贸易战之前,股市对稀土行业供给侧改革和从价计税政策反应平淡。尽管中国稀土不在美方征收关税的范围,但美国发动贸易战对中国稀土上市公司股价产生了显著的负影响,而中国稀土反制关税政策市场反应平淡。贸易战之后,股市对稀土资源税上调政策的反应发生了反转,认为其一部分是贸易战反制策略的替代。

This paper aims to fill the void of research on market responses of rare-earth stocks to U.S.-China trade war.We employ an event-study method to quantify the rare-earth stock price responses to three groups of policies before,at and after U.S.-China trade war.We find that rare earth stock price is unreactive to the industry policies of supply-side reform and implementing an ad valorem tax.U.S.-China trade war presses China’s rare-earth stock prices significantly,even though China’s rare earth is not subject to U.S.tariff increase.Moreover,China’s retaliation tariff on U.S.’rare earth products has insignificant effect on stock prices.After the trade war,stock markets’responses to rare earth industry policy of increasing the tax rate reverses,indicating the market equates portion of the industry policy to substitution of tariff retaliation measures.