中美汇率政策与货币政策冲突效应的非对称性分析——基于通货膨胀视角

Analysis of Asymmetric Conflict between Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Policy of China and the United States——From the Perspective of Inflation

随着国际经济全球化进一步提高,再加上我国正处于转型的关键时期,宏观经济调控变得异常复杂,汇率政策与货币政策既要调控货币数量维护币值稳定又要调节总需求促进经济发展,同时还要负责内外经济均衡的调节,所以二者之间的配合与协调显得异常的重要。然而很多时候,汇率政策与货币政策会出现相互制约的冲突效应,以至于偏离政策预期甚至阻碍经济发展,所以冲突效应的研究对建立完善的政策协调机制意义重大。另外从更为细致的角度来看,这种冲突效应在不同的政策姿态或者经济环境下是否存在差异,即是否存在非对称性,这种非对称性的存在将影响政策协调机制建立的精准度。所以本文在进行理论和现实表现定性分析的基础上,在不同通货膨胀环境下运用STVAR模型研究同一个政策变量在不同方向上相同强度的冲击对另一个政策变量影响的差别,以探索中美汇率政策与货币政策冲突效应的非对称性,以期为建立完善、精准的政策协调机制提供参考。

With the further improvement of economic globalization and a critical period of economic transition, macroeconomic regulation has become extremely complex in our country. Exchange rate policy and monetary policy are not only the main means to regulate the quantity of money and the stability of currency value, but also the main means to regulate aggregate demand and promote economic development. So the cooperation and coordination between them seem to be very important.However, in many cases, the exchange rate policy and monetary policy will have the conflict effect of mutual restriction, so that it deviates from the policy expectation and even hinder the economic development.Therefore, the study of conflict effect is of great significance to establish a perfect policy coordination mechanism. In addition, from a more detailed point of view, whether this kind of conflict effect will be different in different policy attitudes or economic environment, that is, whether there is asymmetry. The existence of this asymmetry will affect the accuracy of the establishment of policy coordination mechanism.On the basis of qualitative analysis of theoretical and practical performance,STVAR model is used to study the impact difference of the same policy variable with the same intensity in different directions on another policy variable, so as to explore the asymmetry of the conflict effect between China and the United States exchange rate policy and monetary policy, so as to provide reference for establishing a perfect and accurate policy coordination mechanism in different inflation environments.