制度水平与跨境贸易人民币结算的发展——基于Heckman两步法的实证检验

Institutional Level and the Development of RMB Settlement in Cross Border Trade——Empirical Test Based on Heckman Two Step Method

本文从货币发挥计价结算职能出发,对其影响因素进行了规范分析,推导了包含制度水平的扩展贸易引力模型,采用168个国家或地区2009-2014年的面板数据,基于Heckman两步法模型估计,证明了制度水平对跨境贸易人民币结算的正向效应。中介效应模型表明存在"制度水平—贸易流—跨境贸易人民币结算"和"制度水平—资本流—跨境贸易人民币结算"两种核心传导机制,且均存在正向部分中介效应。最后,本文分析了跨境贸易人民币结算发展的前景及相关推进对策。

Starting from the function of currency valuation and settlement,this paper makes a normative analysis of its influencing factors,and derives an extended trade gravity model including the institutional level.Using the panel data of 168 countries or regions from 2009 to 2014,based on the Heckman two-step model,it proves that the institutional level has a positive effect on the RMB settlement of cross-border trade.The mediating effect model shows that there are two core transmission mechanisms of"institutional level—trade flow—cross border trade RMB settlement"and"institutional level—capital flow—cross border trade RMB settlement",and both of them have positive mediating effect.Finally,this paper analyzes the development prospects of RMB settlement in cross-border trade and relevant countermeasures.