电力建设投资对国民经济与就业的拉动效应研究

The Economic and Employment Stimulating Effect of Power Engineering Construction Investment

在深入推进供给侧结构性改革,推进重点领域有效投资的背景下,测算电力建设投资对国民经济和就业的拉动作用具有必要的现实意义。本文通过将电力建设投资对应的主要部门分解为电力设备制造业、电力基建业、电力生产及供应业,构造了电力44部门非竞争型投入产出表,提出了居民消费内生的电力投入产出局部闭模型,测算了电力建设投资对国民经济的拉动效应和就业效应。结果表明,电力建设投资通过产业关联和拉动消费从而达到推动经济增长的效果,预计"十三五"期间,流入主要生产部门的我国大型电力企业投资将拉动总产出14.63万亿元,拉动GDP 4.82万亿元,拉动完全非农就业人数2710万人,电力直接相关产业部门贡献率达到75%;根据新基建投资倾向,预计"十四五"时期电力建设投资对国民经济和就业的拉动效果将提升23%左右。

This paper designs and constructs a non-competitive input-output table for 44 sectors and proposes partially closed inputoutput model by using endogenous residents’ consumption, measuring the economic growth and employment pulling effect from power engineering construction investment. The results show that Chinese large-scale power companies investing in major production sectors is expected to 3.94 trillion yuan, which will drive total output 14.63 trillion yuan and GDP of 4.82 trillion yuan, and 27.1 million non-agricultural jobs during the"The thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period. The contribution rate of the industrial sectors directly related to the power industry reached 75%. According to the investment trend triggered by the new infrastructure policy,The stimulating effect of the national economy and employment by investment in power engineering construction will increase by about 23% during the"The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan"period compared with"The thirteenth Five-Year Plan"period.