政府债如何影响了社会融资规模?——基于中国省级数据的验证

Public Debt and Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy——An Empirical Study Based on China’s Provincial Data

政府融资影响企业的融资决策,进而从宏观上影响着社会融资规模结构。随着"新基建"步伐的加快推进,理清政府债和实体经济融资的关系有着重要意义。本文利用2006-2017年省级数据分别检验政府债对实体经济融资的规模影响和结构影响,研究发现:(1)在规模上,政府债务融资对企业融资有挤出效应;(2)在结构上,当政府债务融资组合中政府获得的银行贷款比重越高,社会融资规模结构中,银行贷款融资占比越高,债券融资占比也越低。

Public financing affects private financing, which in turn shapes the financial structure of an economy. With the introduction of"new infrastructure", it is more important to clarify the relationship between public financing and private financing. With the provincial data from 2006-2017, this paper examines the impact of public financing on financial structure. The study found that:(1) Public financing has a crowding out effect on private financing;(2) Given the total amount of public debt unchanged,when the government borrows more by bank loan, the ratio of the size of bank loan to the size of social financing is higher and the ratio of the size of corporate bond to the size of social financing is lower. The findings of this paper provide new empirical evidence for understanding the change of financial structure in China.