储蓄率与宏观杠杆率的关系——基于家庭杠杆率与企业杠杆率区分视角的研究

Relationship between Savings Rate and Macro Leverage——A Study Based on the Perspective of Differentiating Household Leverage and Corporate Leverage

高杠杆问题已经成为中国实现高质量经济发展需要重点关注的问题之一,2018年中国私人非金融部门的债务总量占GDP的比重达到200.6%,其中家庭、企业部门杠杆率分别为51.5%、149.1%。本文基于BIS报告的41个代表性经济体1990-2018年的面板数据进行实证回归,研究发现:储蓄率和家庭、企业部门的杠杆率均是负相关;储蓄率越低,家庭杠杆率占比越高。因此,通过降低储蓄率的方式并不能有效解决高杠杆问题,同时监管部门要警惕家庭部门杠杆率快速增长的问题。

The problem of high leverage in the economic operation of China has become one of the issues that need to be focused on in order to achieve high-quality economic development. In 2018, the total debt of China’s private non-financial sector accounted for 200.6% of GDP, of which the household and corporate sectors accounted for 51.5% and 149.1%, respectively. This paper conducts an empirical regression based on the panel data of 41 representative economies reported by BIS from 1990 to 2018. The study finds that the savings rate and the leverage ratio of the household and business sectors are negatively correlated. Moreover,The higher the savings rate, the higher the corporate sector leverage ratio. Therefore, the problem of high leverage cannot be effectively solved by reducing the savings rate. At the same time, regulators should be alert to the rapid increase in the leverage ratio of the household sector.