积极财政政策对扩大内需的动态作用分析

The Dynamic Impacts of Tax and Fiscal Expenditure on Private Consumption

本文研究积极财政政策对扩大内需的动态作用,通过建立结构向量自回归模型,结合脉冲响应函数和方差分解,考察了实行减税和扩大政府支出的积极财政政策对居民消费产生的动态影响。脉冲响应分析表明,减税和扩大政府支出均有助于扩大内需,且扩大政府支出对提高居民消费水平、扩大内需的效果更为显著。方差分解结果显示,拉动内需对财政政策较为依赖,税收政策的影响呈持续下降趋势,政府支出的影响则持续上升。总体而言,税收政策对扩大内需的长期影响弱于政府支出。

This paper analyzesthe dynamic impacts of active fiscal policy on expanding domestic demand.This paperuses Structural Vector Autoregression(SVAR)model,and set up Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition to observe the dynamic impacts of tax and fiscal expenditure on private consumption.Theempirical resultsshow that the long-term impact of tax policy on expanding domestic demand is weaker than government spending.