蔡英文当局“新南向政策”有效吗?——基于准自然实验“新南向政策”经贸效应的实证检验

Is Tsai Ing-wen’s “New Southbound Policy” Effective?——An Empirical Test of the Economic and Trade Effects of the “New Southward Policy” Based on Quasi Natural Experiment

台湾当局"新南向政策"从地缘政治经济战略来看,首要目标是促进台湾地区出口贸易,然而学者对此目标的达成与否存在分歧。本研究基于2008~2018年台湾对外出口贸易数据,使用DID与PSM-DID方法进行严格因果推论的实证检验。实证结果表明:蔡英文当局"新南向政策"对台湾地区出口贸易没有作用,台湾地区对"新南向"国家出口增长动力来自这些国家内部经济增长与内需市场扩大。台湾当局应秉承"九二共识",尊重经济发展规律,积极推进"新南向政策"与"一带一路"倡议融合,加强同祖国大陆的经贸合作与交流,降低台商投资东南亚国家风险,推动台湾地区对外贸易增长,促进经济稳定持续发展。

From the perspective of geopolitical and economic strategies,the primary goal of Taiwan’s"New Southward Policy"aims at its export trade.However,scholars have different opinions on whether or not the goal has been achieved.Based on the data of Taiwan export trade from 2008 to 2018,this paper conducts an empirical test of strict causal inference by using the methods of DID and PSM-DID.The findings show that Tsai Ingwen’s"New Southbound Policy"has proved no effect on Taiwan foreign export trade,and Taiwan export growth to the"new southbound countries"is driven by its own internal economic growth and the domestic demand market expansion.Therefore,the Taiwan authorities should adhere to the"1992 Consensus",respect the laws of economic development and actively promote the integration of the"New Southward Policy"and the"Belt and Road"initiative.On the other hand,they should,at the same time,strengthen economic and trade cooperation and exchanges with the mainland,reduce the risk of Taiwan Residents investment in Southeast Asian countries so as to boost the growth of its foreign trade and enhance its economic stability and sustainable development.