“十四五”期间中国经济发展不宜设定制造业占比指标

China’s Economic Development Had Better Not Set Proportion Index of Manufacturing Industry During the Period of the 14th Five-year Plan

围绕"十四五"规划学界有一种观点,认为在规划中应设定一个制造业占比指标。但是,以制造业立国的先行工业化大国的历史表明,工业化末期后三产化迭起、制造业占比下降是个普遍现象,"配第-克拉克定律"和"包默尔病理说"分别从理论上做了合乎逻辑的解释,而生产性服务业自制造业析出则给予统计学视野的解释。我国"十三五"以来已进入工业化收尾期,三产化趋势凸显。"十四五"期间经济发展的重点应该还是在服务业尤其是生产性服务业。继续增强我国制造业实力并无异议,但是硬性提出一个制造业占比指标,不仅有悖产业结构的演化规律,而且不利于贯彻中央新近提出的"十四五"期间推动经济高质量发展的主题。

Focusing on how to adjust the industrial structure and promote high-quality economic development during the 14 th Five-year Plan period,there is a view that"set the proportion index of manufacturing industry".However,the history of the leading industrialized countries based on manufacturing industry shows that it is a common phenomenon that after the end of industrialization,the three industries rise one after another and the proportion of manufacturing industry decreases."Petty Clark’s Law"and"Baumer’s Theory of Pathology"make a logical explanation in theory respectively,while the separation of producer services and self manufacturing industry gives a statistical explanation.There is no objection to enhance the strength of China’s manufacturing industry continuously,but the rigid proportion index is contrary to the evolution of industrial structure.