大国发展史视野下中美对视的定位与未来

Orientation and Future of Sino-US Relations in the Perspective of the Development History of Great Powers

近代以来,一个国家的发展已经不再仅是其内部事务。所有国家都渴望发展,而发展必然带来力量态势的变化。各国在这种不断变化的状态下如何生存,已成为现代世界一个重要的课题。考察近代以来荷兰、德国、英国等国的发展历史,总结其成败得失,可以得出大国发展中的一些共性经验:要解决好现代化过程中的国家建设问题;构建有利于现代政治、经济和文化协调发展的社会结构;始终把基础科研教育和制造业作为国家发展的主业;保持忧患意识与艰苦奋斗精神等。在此基础上,可以对大国发展的最新动态有一个清晰的认识。当前中美关系处在一个相互塑造的特殊过程中,中国必须面对和解决很多问题,但始终应该把做好自己的事情放在首位:应坚定做现有国际秩序的维护者与新全球化规则的制定者;要向世界证明自己体制的合理性和优越性;认真解决此前迅猛发展遗留下的社会隐患;让美国与中国"脱钩"的企图最终变成美国的自我孤立;树立"发展中大国"的国情认识等。

Since modern times,the development of a country is no longer just its internal affairs.All countries aspire to development,which inevitably brings about changes in power.How to survive in this changing state has become an eternal topic.By reviewing the development history of the Netherlands,Germany and Britain since modern times and summarizing their success and failure,we can find some common experiences in the development of big countries:to solve the problem of national construction in the process of modernization;to build a social structure conducive to the coordinated development of modern politics,economy and culture;and so on.On this basis,we can have a clear understanding of the latest development of great powers.At present,Sino-US relations are in a special process of shaping each other.China has to face and solve many problems,but should always put its own things in the first place:it should firmly be the defender of the existing international order and the maker of the new globalization rules;it should prove its system rationality and superiority to the world;it should solve the hidden social danger seriously,etc.