货币政策不确定性、纵向产业结构与杠杆率分化

Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Vertical Structure of Industries and Divergence of Leverage Ratio

在政府不断推进去杠杆的进程中,中国经济出现了国企与非国企杠杆率分化的现象,国企杠杆率降幅显著低于非国企。本文构建融合纵向产业结构与货币政策不确定性的DSGE模型架构来探讨中国国企与非国企杠杆率结构性分化的成因。主要结论为:(1)货币政策不确定性冲击是导致中国企业杠杆率结构性分化的重要原因;(2)中国特殊的纵向产业结构以及政府隐性担保能够放大货币政策不确定性冲击对企业杠杆率的影响,产业关联程度越低或者政府隐形担保比例越高挤出非国企融资,导致非国企杠杆率显著下降;(3)预期管理能够通过合理引导企业对货币政策的预期来抑制货币政策不确定性对企业杠杆率的影响。在理清中国企业杠杆率结构性分化成因的基础上,本文提出如下政策建议:在去杠杆过程中应当注重硬化国企的预算约束;保持货币政策的连续性;纠正银行信贷配置的所有制偏好;加强央行沟通,以便于管理企业对货币政策的预期等。

In the process of the Government keeps pushing ahead with deleveraging,the leverage ratios of SOEs and nonSOEs has diverged,and the decrease of the leverage ratios of SOEs is significantly lower than that of nonSOEs.This paper constructs a DSGE model that integrates vertical structure of industries and monetary policy uncertainty to discuss the causes of structural divergence of leverage ratios between SOEs and nonSOEs in China.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The shock of monetary policy uncertainty is an important reason for the structural divergence of the leverage ratios of enterprises;(2)The special vertical structure of industries in China and government implicit guarantee can amplify the impact of monetary policy uncertainty shock on the leverage ratios of enterprises,and when decreasing the linkage degree of vertical structure of industries or increasing the proportion of government implicit guarantee,the further squeeze out the financing of nonSOEs,resulting in the more significant reduction of leverage ratios of nonSOEs;(3)Expectation management can restrain the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on enterprises’leverage ratios by reasonably guiding the expectations of enterprises on monetary policy.On the basis of clarifying the causes of structural divergence of leverage ratios of Chinese enterprises,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:In the process of deleveraging,we should pay attention to strengthening the budget constraint of SOEs;Maintain the continuity of monetary policy;Correcting the ownership preference of banks’credit allocation;Increasing the communication of Central Bank,so as to manage expectations of enterprises on the Monetary Policy.