服务业扩张、技能溢价与福利差距

Service Sector Expansion,Skill Premium and Welfare Inequality

数据表明,相对于其他行业,服务业总体上具有更高的需求收入弹性、更大的高技能劳动投入强度。由此,服务业扩张既伴随不同收入群体消费结构的调整,又同时影响中国不同技能劳动者的供需结构与收入差距。通过构建和估计非位似偏好下多国多行业包含投入产出关联的开放经济模型,本文发现服务业扩张会扩大技能溢价和福利差距。但是受高校扩招的持续影响,高技能劳动供给的大幅增加对收入和福利差距的抑制作用超过了服务业扩张的影响。此外,给定中国实际GDP翻一番的增长目标,制造业(现代服务业)偏向型技术进步将抑制(扩大)福利差距。但是,后者对于总体福利水平的提升作用大于前者。最后,本文发现随着现代服务业贸易成本的持续下降,总体福利水平有所提升,现代服务业就业规模、劳动力市场技能溢价和福利差距均呈现先下降后上升的“U”型演变趋势。本文的研究表明,无论是行业间相对技术进步还是扩大开放,在两个因素的推动下,服务业扩张过程都面临“效率”与“公平”的权衡取舍。

Data shows that,compared with other industries,service industry has higher income elasticity of demand,higher skill intensity.Therefore,the expansion of service industry not only is accompanied by the adjustment of consumption structure of different income groups,but also affects the supply and demand of and hence income gap among workers with different skill.By building and calibrating multi-country multi-sector model with input-output linkage and non-homothetic preference,this paper finds that the expansion of service industry would increase the skill premium and welfare inequality.However,due to the continuous influence of college enrollment expansion,the increase in supply of high skill labor reduces the income and welfare inequality,which offsets the effect of service industry expansion.In addition,given the doubling of China’s real GDP,manufacturing biased technology progress curbs the welfare inequality while the service biased technology progress raises the welfare inequality.But the latter can improve the welfare more than the former.Finally,this paper figures out that the social welfare rises as the trade cost of modern service declines,the employment size,skill premium and welfare inequality present a U-shape evolvement.This paper reveals that,service industry expansion is faced with the trade-off between“efficiency”and“inequality”,no matter whether it is driven by the relative technology progress across sectors or further openness.