反倾销制裁与制造业企业创新——基于中国上市公司的理论与实证

Antidumping Duties and Manufacturing Firm Innovation:Theory and Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms

本文将出口税和产品质量引入企业创新决策的理论模型中,从理论上分析反倾销制裁对企业研发投入和创新产出的影响。模型结论表明由反倾销制裁引致的出口税上升会降低产品需求和价格,进而“倒逼”企业增加创新投入;拓展分析表明产品质量对创新投入弹性越高的企业,反倾销制裁带来的创新的边际收益越高,企业的创新投入越多。实证上,本文以对华反倾销为例,结合2002—2015年中国上市公司数据和世界银行反倾销数据,采用双重差分法实证检验反倾销制裁对中国企业研发投入和创新产出的影响。本文发现,首先,反倾销制裁对企业创新决策具有“倒逼”作用,且存在一定程度的滞后效应,该结论仅对海外业务收入占比高的企业和中下游企业成立;其次,反倾销制裁在短期内提高企业实用新型专利申请量,长期将使得企业发明专利申请数显著增加;再次,反倾销制裁对民营企业和高新技术行业的企业创新有更大的促进作用,该结果印证了拓展分析的结论;最后,在排除金融危机影响、控制时间趋势、控制产品-年份固定效应和采用倾向得分匹配法、剔除未遭受反倾销制裁样本和反事实检验等稳健性检验和内生性识别后,本文的实证结论依旧成立。本文的结论对企业如何在当前国际形势下稳定发展,进而实现高质量发展具有重要的指导意义。

This paper introduced export tax and product quality into the firm innovation decision-making model and tried to analyze the impacts of antidumping duties on firm’s R&D investment and innovation output.Our model shows that the increase in export tax will reduce the demand and price of the product,which will“force”firm to increase R&D investment.Extended analysis shows that the higher the quality-innovation elasticity of the firm,the higher the marginal income of innovation brought by the impact of antidumping duties,and the more the firm will invest in innovation.We also empirically tested the impacts of antidumping on R&D investment and innovation output by using Chinese listed firm data from 2002 to 2015 and the World Bank antidumping data.We find that antidumping have a“forced”effects on firm innovation,and there is a certain degree of lag effects.This result can only be found among exporters which have a high proportion of oversea business,midstream and downstream firms.Antidumping duties would increase the number of utility model patent in the short term,and significantly increased invention patent in the long run.What’s more,thus effects are more significant in private firms and high-tech industries,which prove the conclusion in extended analysis.After excluding the impact of financial crisis,controlling time trend,controlling productyear fixed effect,using PSM method,dropping the non-affected firms,using counterfactual test and other robustness checks,and solving the endogeneity problems,our results still remained.The conclusions of this paper might provide some suggestions on firms’development under current international environment,and how to achieve high quality development.