户籍管制松动推动了城市房价上涨吗——来自省会城市人才落户的证据

Does the Loosening of Household Registration Regulation Push up the House Prices——Evidence from “Talent Settlement” Policy in Provincial Capital Cities

户籍制度改革在推动城市化进程的同时,也推高了城市住房价格。借助于近年来人才落户政策的“准自然实验”,本文利用26个省会城市2006—2018年间的面板数据,通过双重差分法研究了人才落户政策对城市房价波动的影响。实证分析表明:“人才落户”政策对城市房价波动有显著影响,其影响程度取决于城市交通和教育的发展水平,即交通运输条件越好,教育水平越高的城市房价上涨越明显。进一步的机制分析发现,人才引进能够提高城市信贷规模和创新水平。这为城市如何完善人才落户政策提供了重要启示。

While the reform of the household registration system promotes the urbanization process,it also pushes up housing prices.With the help of the“quasi-natural experiment”of talent settlement policies in recent years,this paper uses panel data from 26 provincial capitals from 2006 to 2018 to study the impact of talent settlement policies on urban housing price fluctuations by a double difference method.The empirical analysis shows that the“talent settlement”policy has significantly promoted the rise of urban housing prices,and its impact depends on urban transportation and education:the better the transportation conditions,the more obvious the increase in housing prices in cities with higher education levels.Further mechanism analysis found that the introduction of talents can improve the scale and innovation level of urban credit.This provides important enlightenment for the city how to perfect the talent settlement policy.