国家投资对区域经济发展的作用:实证评估与投资依赖

Effects of State Budget Investment on Regional Economic Development: Empirical Evaluation and Investment Addiction

本文先实证分析再理论演绎,综合保增长和提效率两方面探讨国家投资促进地区经济发展的效果。首先本文基于1997—2016年中国30个省份的面板数据,使用巴罗方程讨论国家投资的经济增长效应,并采用随机前沿效率分析方法评估其对生产效率的影响。研究发现,国家投资提升了地方产出,但对生产效率影响为负;作为对比,代表市场力量的FDI在两方面均起到了积极作用。之后本文构建了含有异质性外来投资的索洛增长模型,解释实证结果并进一步演绎证明了国家投资的"兴奋剂效应":为了维持经济景气,国家投资必须持续递增地注入地方,而这又使得地方产生国家投资依赖。本研究有助于全面评价和理解我国国家投资政策,并表明通过"供给侧改革"以及市场软环境建设来提高效率,才是长久之计,这充分符合十九大提高经济增长质量的精神。

From empirical analysis to theoretical deduction,the paper explores the effects of State Budget Investment on regional economic development from the perspectives of both growth maintenance and efficiency promotion.Firstly,based on the panel data of thirty Chinese provinces from 1997 to 2016,we investigate the economic growth effect by using the Barro growth equation,and then evaluate the efficiency effect by following the Stochastic Frontier Efficiency approach.It is concluded that:State Budget Investment significantly increases regional output but decreases technologic efficiency;in contrast,FDI plays positive roles in both areas.We then construct a Solow model with heterogeneous external investment,and normatively interpret the above findings and further deduce that:to maintain economic boom,State Budget Investment amount has to increase continuously and local government will exhibit addiction to State Budget Investment.This study helps to comprehensively evaluate and deepen the understanding of China’s State Budget investment policy and indicates that long-term solution rest on improving efficiency through"supply-side reform"and market soft environment construction,which fully conforms to the spirit of promoting growth quality of the 19 th National Congress of CPC.